The Weekly Sift Stack: 11.3.2025 Gold's Pullback, Netflix's Narrow Moat, and a U.S.-China Trade Truce

This material is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Index Tracker Year To Date: 10/31/2025 Market Close

• S&P 500 TR: 17.52%

• NASDAQ: 22.86%

• Russell 2000 TR: 12.39%

• MSCI International EAFE TR: 26.61%

• Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index: 6.8%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.095%

• 30-year Mortgage Rate: 6.17%

• Gold: 53.75%

• Bitcoin 16.7%

• US Dollar Index: (8.01)%

• Core Inflation 9.30.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 3.0%

  • Month Over Month: 0.2%

• CPI Index 9.30.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 3.0%

  • Month Over Month: 0.3%

Index Tracker Notes:

Gold has blown through 2025 like nothing else but has seen its biggest pullback in years this past week. Progress in China-US trade tensions and strength in the US dollar have given pause to one of the greatest runs we’ve seen in gold, as the famed yellow metal dropped almost 8% since 10/20/2025.

Inflation came in below economist expectations, sending US Stocks to soaring heights, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 47,000 for the first time. This gives continued confidence that the Fed will continue it’s rate cutting cycle despite cautious language of Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

Stock of the Week

Netflix Inc (NFLX)

Netflix reported earnings two weeks ago with overall good sentiment, but a 10% cost of “doing business” tax on gross sales in Brazil added $619m expense to the balance sheet and sent shares sliding nearly 10%.

There are two main aspects that attribute to confidently giving Netflix a narrow moat in a nearly moatless industry…

With more than $8 billion in cash on hand last quarter, Netflix has the flexibility to consistently produce top-tier, high-budget content that keeps audiences engaged. For context, Avengers: Endgame cost roughly $407 million when adjusted for inflation, ranking among the most expensive films ever made, while Stranger Things Season 5 is expected to top $480 million. That level of investment showcases Netflix’s ability to outspend and outperform rivals in the race for premium storytelling.

Beyond its balance sheet, Netflix’s brand power is unmatched. It’s not just a streaming platform - it’s a cultural fixture. As of December 31, 2024, Netflix reported 301.6 million paying members before shifting its focus from subscriber counts to revenue growth, signaling maturity in its business model. For comparison, Hulu sits at around 55 million subscribers, and Amazon Prime Video boasts roughly 200 million. Even as competition intensifies, Netflix’s scale, recognition, and early-mover advantage continue to separate it from the pack.

There has also been a change in the tide with a heavy push towards cheaper monthly subscription options with ads… this is a win-win for Netflix and the subscriber base. Netflix currently makes roughly $11.5b+ in revenue each month from its subscriptions ($46 billion for the 2025 year). Ad revenue is projected to be $3.1b for 2025, a nearly 100% increase from $1.6b in 2024. As household budgets get tighter, cheaper ad-based options could become more attractive when looking to save on monthly expenses.

This won’t become Blockbuster right?

Netflix has experienced substantial revenue growth, net income increased by 240% since 2022, margins continue to climb, and international growth is starting to catch on - making a slow down for Netflix looking unlikely.

Key Facts

• CEO: Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters

• Founded August 29, 1997

• Market Cap: $475.44 billion

• Sector: Communication Services

• 52-week range: $744.34-$1,341.15

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow

• PE Ratio: 46.85

  

  Sources Morningstar & Google Finance

Weekly Insight

Cooling Inflation and US/China Trade Tension Timeout

Inflation cooled in September - the CPI rose just 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, both below expectations. Beneath the hood, core prices (excluding food and energy) climbed 0.2%, signaling price pressures are easing across goods and services.

Still, the story isn’t all smooth sailing - tariffs and energy costs remain wild cards that could stir prices later this year and the Jerome Powell expressed cautionary language on rate cuts, although, two more rate cuts are still expected this year.

In a surprising turn, China announced plans to suspend its rare earth export curbs and investigations into US chip firms, easing one of the biggest pressure points in the ongoing trade rivalry. Think of this as Beijing tapping the brakes on escalation - signaling a more pragmatic tone just as global supply chains start to stabilize.

Rare Earths are critical for everything from EV motors to AI chips, making them a lever of geopolitical power. By pausing restrictions, China may be looking to restore confidence in its manufacturing sector and cool investor fears of another teach decoupling spiral. Meanwhile, dropping US chip probes takes some heat off companies caught in the crossfire - a small diplomatic thaw after months of tightening rhetoric.

Did You Know?

Sift Stack Flashback: The setup of the Dot Com Bubble, Party like it’s 1999

On November 3rd, 1999, the NASDAQ closed above 3,000 for the first time, marking a major milestone in the tech-driven equity market run of the late 1990s. This marked approximately 289% growth over the previous 6 years.

Poll Question

Response from one of our reader’s to last week’s poll question - After the latest pullback, how do you view regional banks?

“I am picking only to invest in the biggest names, still some growth and good dividends to capture. The big names are too big to fail and have gone through strenuous stress testing. That offers me some safety”

Quote Of The Week

“Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly.”

-Netflix Founder, Reed Hastings

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