The Weekly Sift Stack: 12.1.2025 - Rallies, Retail, and Rate-Cut Rumors

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Index Tracker Year To Date: 11/28/2025 Market Close

• S&P 500 TR: 17.81%

• NASDAQ: 21%

• Russell 2000 TR: 13.47%

• MSCI International EAFE TR: 27.4%

• Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index: 7.46%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.038%

• 30-year Mortgage Rate: 6.23%

• Gold: 60.63%

• Bitcoin: (3.69)%

• US Dollar Index: (8.32)%

• Core Inflation 9.30.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 3.0%

  • Month Over Month: 0.2%

• Consumer Price Index 9.30.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 3.0%

  • Month Over Month: 0.3%

Index Tracker Notes:

The S&P 500 posted a strong week with nearly 4% growth, rebounding from some volatility experienced earlier in the month. In the bond markets, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index climbs to 7.46% on the year with another positive week up 0.38% largely due to increasing confidence of a rate cut. Speaking of the possible rate cut, the US dollar index dropped another 0.72% with expectations of interest rates easing.

Bitcoin recovered significant ground last week but resumed its decline with about a 4.5% loss on Monday 12/1/2025. This past Saturday, the People’s Bank of China posted a warning about illegal activities associated with crypto currency, leading to those nerves we saw to start this week.

Stock of the Week

Amazon (AMZN)

Does Amazon basically own a national holiday at this point? It’s hard not to think of them the moment someone says “Cyber Monday.” Most people know Amazon as the e-commerce giant, but their reach stretches far beyond online shopping. The company operates across e-commerce, cloud computing through AWS, digital entertainment with Kindle and Prime Video, and artificial intelligence via Alexa. While e-commerce remains strong, Amazon’s real growth over the next five years is expected to come from AWS and advertising: two high-margin segments that could help the company consistently outperform earnings expectations.

Amazon has also cut out the middleman by deploying more than 100,000 self-branded delivery vans, strengthening its already massive moat and powering the same-day delivery experience customers have come to expect. And like the rest of the “Mag 7,” Amazon is pouring staggering amounts into AI infrastructure: $77B in 2024, $125B in 2025, and projections north of $150B for 2026. They also recently unveiled plans to invest up to $50B in cloud capabilities to support AI for the U.S. government, with a new data center expected to break ground in 2026. With roughly $95B in cash on hand as of Q3 and trailing-12-month free cash flow of $10.6B, Amazon has the resource, but future cash flow pressure is worth watching as spending accelerates.

Overall, Amazon may possess one of the widest moats of any modern company, backed by a loyal customer base, durable financials, and exceptional pricing power, all of which help keep its business engine running steady.

Key Facts

• CEO: Andy Jassy

• Founded July 5th, 1994 by Jeff Bezos

• Market Cap: $2.49 Trillion

• Sector: Consumer Cyclical - Internet Retail

• 52-week range: $161.38 - $258.60

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide

• PE Ratio: 34.8

Graph of Amazon (AMZN) vs SPDR Shares S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the past 5-years

Weekly Insight

Black Friday’s Retail Fade and Online Boom

The Super Bowl of shopping that historically included doorbusters, stampedes, and deals people thought they would  never see again. Black Friday in-person retail shopping was practically the hunger games. Even with current economic uncertainty, Americans shopped bigger than ever. Consumers spent 9.1% more than last year online this past Friday with a record $11.8b according to Adobe Analytics. This was on top of $6.4b spent online on Thanksgiving day. According to RetailNext, Black Friday foot traffic dropped 3.6% from 2024, with former CEO of Sears Canada, Mark Cohen, stating that “the integrity of the event is pretty much gone”… as “a Black Friday price was the best you could ever find on something… never to be seen again. In today’s day and age, promotional pricing just gets better and better from a consumer’s point of view the closer you get to the holiday.”

Hollywood Blockbusters continue - “Zootopia and Wicked dominate Thanksgiving”

This Thanksgiving weekend was huge for Hollywood. Disney’s Zootopia 2 dominated with a massive $156m domestic haul, powering a nearly $300M weekend for all movie showings – one of the top 5 Thanksgiving totals ever. IMAX posted its best holiday performance in history, and Wicked: For Good added another $93m to the pot, which CJ and I were generous donors. Globally, Zootopia 2 shattered records with a $556m opening, the biggest animated debut of all time. Together, these two films reignited theater momentum heading into December, giving Hollywood another much-needed win after a rocky post-summer stretch.

Fed Watch - “Trump Teases New Chair as Rate-Cut Odds Surge”

President Trump says he’s selected his next Federal Reserve chair but isn’t ready to reveal the name, though National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is clearly in the spotlight. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said, “I know who I’m going to pick. We’ll be announcing it.” When pressed on whether Hassett was the choice, he offered only a grin and: “I’m not telling you. We’ll be announcing it.”

Odds of a rate cut continue to climb for December 10^th’s Fed meeting with nearly 88% probability according to CME FedWatch.

Did You Know?

Sift Stack Flashback: “The Day the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the Great Recession”

On December 1st, 2008 the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy had been in a recession since December of 2007. This was the formal mark of the start of the Great Recession, and the Dow Jones dropped 7.7% on that single trading day. The drop was fueled by fears that consumer spending was weaker than expected.

Poll Question

Last week’s poll results - Will the Federal Reserve cut rates on December 10th?

1. 82% Voted - Yes, we need the cut to continue the growth.

2. 9% Voted - No, the current state of the economy doesn’t warrant a cut.

3. 9% Voted - Who knows at this point…

4. 0% Voted - A cut?? We need a bump back up!

Quote Of The Week

“If you can’t tolerate critics, don’t do anything new or interesting.”

-Amazon Founder, Jeff Bezos

Feel free send feedback or further input on the poll question to [email protected] or [email protected]. We would love to hear from you!