Rate Cut Rumors, Netflix vs Paramount, & SOFI’s Big Move I The Weekly Sift Stack - 12.8.2025 (Issue 6)

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Index Tracker Year To Date: 12/5/2025 Market Close

• S&P 500 TR: 18.22%

• NASDAQ: 22.1%

• Russell 2000 TR: 14.47%

• MSCI International EAFE TR: 28.38%

• Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index: 6.94%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.139%

• 30-year Mortgage Rate: 6.19%

• Gold: 62.62%

• Bitcoin: (4.99)%

• US Dollar Index: (8.76)%

• Core Inflation 9.30.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 2.8%

  • Month Over Month: 0.2%

• Consumer Price Index 9.30.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 3.0%

  • Month Over Month: 0.3%

Index Tracker Notes:

The S&P 500 showed another strong week, closing at roughly a quarter-percent off of its closing high.

Bond yields ticked higher after the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE, came in softer than expected. September’s annual rate landed at 2.8%, giving the Fed more cover for a quarter-point rate cut this week. The lower inflation numbers also come off a rougher American labor market with over 1 million job cuts announced in 2025, the most since the COVID year of 2020 and only the 6th time since 1993, according to outplacement firm - Challenger, Gray, and Christmas. Leading the way in 2025 job cuts is the US Federal Government with over 300 thousand. The general sentiment of the market appears to take on that inflation is easing, the Fed is still in control, and no need to rush deeper cuts in 2026 - but perhaps the labor market could use some easing.

Stock of The Week: SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI)

After a few weeks of deep-diving into the Magnificent 7 and the AI heavyweights, we’re shifting gears to a name that isn’t always front-page news, but probably should be. SoFi Technologies has been one of the market’s quiet climbers this year, and it’s worth taking a closer look at what’s driving the momentum.

What Exactly Is SoFi?

If you haven’t followed SoFi closely, here’s the quick download: it’s a fully online, all-in-one personal finance platform, essentially a digital bank with a technology backbone. SoFi offers everything from checking and savings accounts to student loans, personal loans, mortgage refinancing, investing, insurance, and more. The goal is simple: one app, one ecosystem, built to help consumers manage their financial lives and build wealth entirely online.

A Market Cap Glow-Up

For most of 2022, all of 2023, and even into late 2024, SoFi lived in the mid-cap range, between roughly $2–$10 billion. Rising interest rates kept a lid on growth, but once the Fed began cutting rates in the second half of 2024, SoFi’s stock caught a tailwind.

Add to that a streak of strong year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by expanding product lines and consistent member increases, and you get a company that has begun breaking out of its lane.

Volatility: The Double-Edged Sword

Let’s talk about volatility for a second. SoFi’s beta sits around 2.0, meaning the stock tends to move twice as much as the broader market. Great when things are going well… not so fun when sentiment turns negative.

Quick rundown on Beta: this measures how much a stock moves compared to the overall market, typically the S&P 500. A Beta of 1.0 means the stock moves about the same as the market, a beta above 1.0 means it’s more volatile than the market, and a beta below 1.0 means its less volatile than market.

And that brings us to the big headline from Friday.

The $1.5 Billion Share Offering: Dilution 101

SoFi announced a $1.5 billion share offering to raise additional capital. Dilution can be a confusing topic, so let’s break it down quickly.

What is Dilution?

Dilution happens when a company issues new shares. Because there are now more shares in total, each existing shareholder owns a smaller percentage of the company. It is basically the opposite of a share buyback. Dilution can hurt in the short term, but it is sometimes necessary for companies to raise money and invest in future growth. 

Short term effects:

• Stocks often drop on dilution news.

• Investors worry that the company is tightening for cash.

• More shares outstanding means current shareholders own slightly less of the company.

• More shares also means future earnings are divided across a larger base, potentially lowering EPS.

Long term effects:
If the business is fundamentally healthy, raising capital can be a strategic win. Additional funding can support expansion, product growth, or even future acquisitions. This is part of what we look at when evaluating a company’s capital allocation discipline.

A Possible S&P 500 Contender?

SoFi continues to post strong user growth, expand its product ecosystem, and mature into a more diversified financial platform. With tailwinds from interest rate cuts and improving profitability trends, some analysts have begun floating the idea that SoFi could be on the path toward future S&P 500 consideration.

SoFi (SOFI) Key Facts

• CEO: Anthony Noto

• Founded August 2011 by Mike Cagney, Dan Macklin, James Finnigan, and Ian Brady

• Market Cap: $34.24 Billion

• Sector: Financial Services - Credit Services

• 52-week range: $8.60 - $32.73

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None

• PE Ratio: 48.82

Graph of SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI) vs SPDR Shares S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the past 5-years

Weekly Insight: Netflix (NFLX) Almost Goes Full Thanos, McDonald’s (MCD) Turning Up The Heat on “Value”, and The Fed Watch

Netflix (NFLX) Almost Goes Full Thanos - Attempts to Snap Up Warner Bros. (WBD) & HBO Max in $82.7b Media Power Grab But Paramount (PSKY) Strikes Back!

Wall Street, Hollywood, and even Washington DC were stunned by Netflix’s bid for Warner Bros., but the celebration did not last long. The Trump administration is signaling “heavy skepticism” and even across the aisle, Senator Elizabeth Warren wants a full antitrust review, calling the deal an “anti-monopoly nightmare.”

In comes Paramount. The Company is considering a hail-mary bid directly to Warner Bros. shareholders, hoping regulators view their offer more favorably. Meanwhile, movie theaters are sweating, because if Netflix ends up owning a major studio, the entire production-to-distribution pipeline could be rewritten overnight.

McDonald’s (MCD) Turns Up The Heat on “Value”

Is anyone still using the $1 menu? Well, McDonald’s is rolling out new global franchising standards that grade franchises on whether their pricing delivers value - a direct response to cash-strapped consumers pulling back. Starting 1/1/2026, operators will be “holistically assessed” on their pricing decisions, even though they still technically set prices locally.

Value menus have boosted sales, especially as higher-income customers trade down, but McDonald’s says consumer pressure will last well into 2026. The tougher standards may frustrate some U.S. franchisees, though the company is offering new pricing tools and advisors to help. Bottom line - value leadership is now a requirement, not a suggestion and hopefully we will all see more standardized McDonald’s service across the board

Fed Watch - Rate Cut Rumors

Odds of a quarter point rate cut continue to climb for this Wednesday’s Fed meeting with 89.6% probability, climbing about 3% from last week according to CME FedWatch.

Did You Know?

Sift Stack Flashback: “The Day the Soviet Union officially dissolved”

On December 8th, 1991 - the Soviet Union officially dissolved. When U.S. markets reopened the next day, the Dow rose significantly, reflecting how geopolitical events can ripple into finance.

Poll Question

Last week’s poll results - “How do you shop on Black Friday or the Holidays?”

1. 57% Voted - I’m a big fan of the simplicity of online shopping and love missing out on the Black Friday stampede.

2. 43% Voted - I go all-in, I love the in-person shopping experience.

Quote Of The Week

“Building Trust is the only thing standing between us and the best. We won’t stop until we’re there.”

-SoFi CEO, Anthony Noto

Feel free send feedback or further input on the poll question to [email protected] or [email protected]. We would love to hear from you!