Iran War Updates, Oil, & Adobe's AI Challenge: The Weekly Sift Stack - 3.9.2026 (Issue 17)

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Index Tracker Year-To-Date Performance 3.12.2026 Market Open:

• S&P 500 TR: (0.99)% - Price: 6,775.80

• NASDAQ TR: (2.13)% - Price: 22,716.14

• Russell 2000 TR: 1.57% - Price: 2,542.90

• MSCI International EAFE TR: 2.84% - Price: 10,906.43

• Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index TR: 0.29% - Price: 2,355.75

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.224%

• 30-year Mortgage Rate: 6.00%

• Gold: 19.51% - Price: $5,187.10 per oz.

• Bitcoin: (19.42)% - Price: $70,433.11

• U.S. Dollar Index: 1.24% - Price: 99.50

• Crude Oil: 59.44% - Price: $91.57 per barrel

• Core Inflation 1.31.2026:

  • Year Over Year: 2.5%

  • Month Over Month: 0.3%

• Consumer Price Index 1.31.2026

  • Year Over Year: 2.4%

  • Month Over Month: 0.2%

Index Tracker Notes:

Crude oil has climbed back above $90 per barrel with the war in Iran still escalating. This has also led to the S&P 500 being down almost 1% Year-To-Date. The U.S. Dollar and Gold has strengthened throughout the greater Middle Eastern conflict, being the choice for flight to safety.

Stock of The Week: Adobe Inc (ADBE)

As we discussed two weeks ago, the software sector has been taking quite the beating, a few of those names that we mentioned we were excited about have started to see some recovery, but one name that has been feeling that pain all the way back into late 2023 is Adobe.

Adobe’s stock price peaked back in early 2024 and since then has been on a constant slide to where it trades currently, down over 55% from previous highs to a new 5-year low. Adobe is a company that is fully susceptible to all of the legitimate AI fears.

Adobe has just been downgraded by Morningstar from a Wide Moat to a Narrow Moat, meaning that they no longer see Adobe having a best in class competitive advantage that is expected to last 20+ years. They now view Adobe still having an edge (albeit for 10+ years) in their space but may face more competition further down the road.

Now this is not the first time that we have heard the headline “Software is Dead”; competitive advantages don’t disappear overnight but the most famous 5 words in investing start to ring heavy in our minds today… “This Time Will Be Different.”

There will be winners and there will be losers. Adobe has been the clear leader in their space for many years but with another big earnings call on Thursday, and extra downside market risk in the air, is that what Adobe may officially be if not already? A has been? Or is the market getting too greedy and overlooking a great value company with consistent 10% revenue growth, a low Price to Earnings ratio, and enough cash on hand to payoff all their debt?

Adobe (ADBE) Key Facts

• CEO: Shatanu Narayen

• Founded in 1982 by John Warnock and Charles Geschke

• Market Cap: $111.57 Billion

• Sector: Technology - Application Software

• 52-week range: $244.28 - $422.95

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow

• PE Ratio: 16.39

Adobe (ADBE) vs SPDR Shares S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the past 5-years

Weekly Insight: Operation Epic Fury Enters Its 2nd Week in the Middle East & The Record Breaking Price of Oil

Last week wasn’t normal… we saw the largest single week spike in oil prices, EVER. Crude rose 35% last week with the Strait of Hormuz being shutdown. President Trump also sent out a post on Truth Social commenting on oil prices.

So for those that are starting to see the price at the pumps rise, that is to be expected. The national average today is $3.49/gallon, up 16% last week, so this starts to bring in a lot of concern that there could be inflation if this thing gets dragged out further. Now don’t get too concerned yet, there is still a lot that has to play out, and we are still a good ways off from those record high oil prices at $145.29/barrel back in 2008. Not to say that those prices are out of the question with what we have been seeing the past 8 days.

As of March 7th, the combined U.S.-Israeli force expanded its air campaign to include civilian industrial and oil facilities. Major strikes hit the oil refineries in Tehran, causing massive fires across the capital. On March 2nd, the Natanz Nuclear facility was struck for the first time in this campaign. Throughout this week, repeated air strikes have targeted the Parchin military complex and Shahroud missile facility to dismantle Iran’s ballistic missile production. Iran has also declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the U.S. navy has currently destroyed 50+ Iranian Naval ships, according to U.S. sources.

We continue to see rising casualties, as the U.S. and Israel report 3,000 Iranian soldiers killed, 9 U.S. soldiers dead, and 2 Israeli soldiers dead, while Iran reports about 1200 Iranians dead and Lebanon reports 570 Lebanese dead.

Looking ahead, the U.S. is moving a 3rd carrier strike group to the Middle East, the USS George H.W. Bush.

Israeli and Saudi Arabian Stock Markets Perform Well Amidst Greater Middle Eastern War

Poll Question

Last week’s poll results - “How long do you foresee U.S. military involvement in Iran?”

1. 50% Voted for: Long Term (Over a year)

2. 35% Voted for: Short Term (Few weeks to a few months)

3. 15% Voted for: Mid Term (Over by end of 2026)

Featured YouTube Comment: JakeRobinson-u2i on U.S. Military Involvement in Iran

Quote of The Week: Adobe CEO - Shantanu Narayen

“If you can connect all the dots… that goal is probably not ambitious enough.”

Last Week’s YouTube Episode:

Feel free send feedback or further input on the poll question to [email protected] or [email protected]. We would love to hear from you!