Apple-Getting Back on the Throne, Middle East Escalation, & The World Cup Final: The Weekly Sift Stack - 7.20.2026 (Issue 34)

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Index Tracker Year-To-Date Performance 7/24/2026 Market Open:

• S&P 500 TR: 8.69% 

  •  Price: 7,408.30

• NASDAQ 100 TR: 13.27%

  • Price: 28,454.81

• Russell 2000 TR: 17.94% 

  •  Price: 2,940.16

• MSCI International EAFE TR: 9.09% 

  • Price: 11,569.05

• Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index TR: (0.68)%

  • Price: 2,332.80

• Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Bond Index TR: 0.26%

  • Price: 1,396.19

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.683%

• 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.85%

• Gold: (6.41)% 

  • Price: $4,063.20 per oz.

• Bitcoin: (25.47)% 

  • Price: $65,014.04

• U.S. Dollar Index: 2.99%

  • Price: 101.36

• Crude Oil: 56.57% 

  • Price: $89.88 per barrel

• Core Inflation 6.30.2026

  • Year Over Year: 2.6%

• Consumer Price Index 6.30.2026

  • Year Over Year: 3.5%

Index Tracker Notes:

US inflation cooled to 3.5% in June, down from 4.2% in May - its first decline in five months and the biggest monthly CPI drop in over six years, driven mostly by falling energy prices after the US–Iran ceasefire. Core inflation eased to 2.6%, below forecasts. Oil has spiked back up to $90 per barrel with increasing middle east tensions.

Stock of The Week: Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.56% )  

The familiar saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is the first thing that comes to mind watching the closing bell last Friday. A dominant player has reclaimed its spot as the most valuable company in the world. Apple, now sitting at a market cap of $4.90 Trillion has once again passed Nvidia as the most valuable company in the world. This story however is one that is very interesting to watch the slow and steady climb over the past 4 months.

Apple hasn’t done anything earth shattering to date in 2026. The normal new iPhone 18 is set to release this fall, your normal hardware updates, and a few other changes here and there, nothing eye turning. Yet shares are up over 23% Year-to-Date, 35% since the end of March, and Apple is currently trading at an all time high. So what is it that this Mag 7 company has been doing to pull away from the pack in 2026. Well, the answer may just actually be…nothing.

While the story of 2026 has been one of Big Tech, AI, and Massive Data Centers, Apple has quietly sat behind the scenes and not been a big player in any of these areas. They are not trying to be the leader in billion dollar data center productions and start renting out compute power to other large scalers. They have arguably the least updated AI (Siri), and allow Google and OpenAi to do most of the worst for Siri’s improvements by partnering with those companies to allow them to power Siri. And, unlike most of their Mag 7 counterparts, their Capex spending is anticipated to be less in 2026 than in 2025 coming in somewhere between $9-$12b. This is one area that Apple has clearly taken a stand on, and while the rest of the big tech names are looking for more cash to spend, Apple is loading up on their free cash flow.

So the market has quietly been taking advantage of a less risky, cash cow, that isn’t putting all of its eggs into the AI basket at this moment. Now all this to be said…is Apple getting over priced? Apple has one of the best ecosystem’s around when you think of all their products and their tight nit integration to one another, but the growth has started to mature. iPhone sales have been nearly stagnant since 2021, and the only promising signs of further expansion are in China. Additionally, with the massive demand spike in memory, Apple announced it is raising the base prices for the iPhone 18 by $200-$300 per model. This will likely be one of the biggest tests for Apple in years. Analysts are expecting large increases in revenue because of Apple’s impressive margin’s, but we are interested to see if new iPhone demand stays strong with the large price increases, or if the consumer is willing to get more life out of their current phone.

Apple (AAPL) Key Facts

• CEO: Tim Cook

• Headquarters in Cupertino, California

• Founded in 1976 by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, & Ronald Wayne

• Market Cap: $4.7 Trillion

• Sector: Technology

• 52-week range: $201.50 - $334.98

• 2025 Annual Revenue: $416 Billion

• 2025 Net Income: $112 Billion

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide

• Trailing PE Ratio: 39.5

  

  Sources: Google Finance, Morningstar, & CFRA

Chart of The Week: Maybe The World Cup doesn’t boost the economy much… but it does boost our spirits!

Weekly Insight: TSMC Q2 Earnings - Fifth Straight Record Quarter, Explained

TSMC crushed Q2 (reported July 16): revenue hit a record $40.2B, up ~34% year-over-year in USD terms, with net income up 77.4% - its fifth straight record quarter, beating estimates on both lines. Gross margin of 67.7% and operating margin of 60.3% were all-time highs, driven by AI demand and the. Big headlines beyond the numbers: CEO C.C. Wei announced another $100B for Arizona (total commitment now $265B), Q3 revenue guidance of $44.6–45.8B, full-year revenue growth expected slightly above 40%, and the 2026 capex budget raised to $60–64B. Source: TSMC IR earnings release.

US–Iran Conflict Reignites: What It Means for Oil & Inflation

The 60-day US–Iran ceasefire reached in mid-June has broken down, with the US conducting a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran and Iran launching strikes on US-allied Gulf states including Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. The US military reports 17 service member deaths over the nearly five-month conflict, including two in Jordan last week. The US has reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined significantly, and US gas prices have risen 34% since the conflict began, now averaging just under $4/gallon - a factor that could affect July's inflation data after June's energy-driven decline. Qatar and Pakistan are working to facilitate renewed negotiations between the two sides, though hostilities are ongoing.

FIFA World Cup Final 2026 - Spain is Crowned World Champions, Messi Passes the Torch to Lamine Yamal, but did America cash in?

Spain defeated Argentina 1–0 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final, with Ferran Torres scoring the decisive goal in the 106th minute of extra time. The result denied Argentina back-to-back titles after their 2022 win in Qatar and delivered Spain its second World Cup trophy, the first since 2010. A tight, tactical final stayed scoreless through 90 minutes before Torres broke through in the second period of extra time, capping a tournament in which Spain won its opening two matches for the first time since 1930 en route to the title.

Off the pitch, the tournament's economic impact on the US is a tale of big projections and murkier reality. FIFA's pre-tournament analysis with the WTO projected $30.5 billion in gross output, $17.2 billion in GDP contribution, and 185,000 full-time-equivalent jobs for the US, while Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan estimated roughly $20 billion in US economic impact on the eve of the final, driven mainly by tourism and spending across host cities. But early post-tournament data tells a more muted story: US tourism in June was essentially flat year-over-year, European visits actually fell, and the inflation report showed less World Cup effect than expected. Goldman Sachs had projected a temporary bump of about 40,000 June jobs and 10,000 in July, with a roughly 15,000-job drag expected in August as temporary positions unwind - meaning much of the boost was always going to be transitory.

Poll Question:

World Cup Poll Results:

1. “Who will win the World Cup Golden Boot?”

   1. 50% Voted For: Mbappe - Correct

   2. 32% Voted For: Haaland

   3. 18% Voted For: Messi

   4. 0% Voted For: Kane

2. “Who will win the World Cup?”

   1. 36% Voted For Other - Who?

   2. 27% Voted For USA - Out of this world expectation

   3. 19% Voted For Spain - Correct

   4. 19% Voted For France - The common sense choice

3. How far will the USMNT Go?

   1. 29% Voted For: Group Stage - No faith

   2. 29% Voted For: Round of 16 - Correct

   3. 29% Voted for: Quarter Finals - Too much faith

   4. 13% Voted for: Semi Finals or Finals - Maybe in another life

      

      The torch has been passed from Messi to Yamal

Re-featured Sifter from TikTok, @Hunt768 on the Golden Boot race… he was indeed proven correct - “This one is simple. Mbappe will win the title. Like Henry when he was younger.”

Quote of The Week: Captain of the Spanish National Soccer Team, Rodri

“One day I said to my father, ''I'm quitting football, my dreams are over.’ He said to me, ‘No, go ahead and let's try until the end.’ Today I'm here and I'm proud.”

Last Week’s YouTube Episode:

Feel free send feedback or further input on the poll question to [email protected] or [email protected]. We would love to hear from you!