Amazon Earnings Preview - AWS, AI, & Why it's Lagging The S&P 500: The Weekly Sift Stack - 1.30.2026 (Issue 13)

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Index Tracker Year-To-Date Performance 1.30.2026 Market Close:

• S&P 500 TR: 1.23% - Price: 6,939.03

• NASDAQ TR: 0.94% - Price: 23,461.82

• Russell 2000 TR: 4.24% - Price: 2,613.74

• MSCI International EAFE TR: 4.90% - Price: 11,158.20

• Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index TR: 0.06% - Price: 2,352.90

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.241%

• 30-year Mortgage Rate: 6.10%

• Gold: 12.36% - Price: $4,877.80 per oz.

• Bitcoin: (5.23)% - Price: $82,837.99

• U.S. Dollar Index: (0.83)% - Price: 97.46

• Crude Oil: 13.57% - Price: $62.77 per barrel

• Core Inflation 12.31.2025:

  • Year Over Year: 2.6%

  • Month Over Month: 0.2%

• Consumer Price Index 12.31.2025

  • Year Over Year: 2.7%

  • Month Over Month: 0.3%

Index Tracker Notes:

The S&P 500 had a steady week up about 0.23%, while bond market remained relatively stable. Notably, Gold came down from its all-time-high, falling nearly 9% on Friday 1/30/2026, while the U.S. dollar surged upward 1% as investors seemed to be relieved by the pick for the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

Stock of The Week: Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon is the biggest name in the online customer retail space, being one of the members of the renowned Magnificent 7. Although, Amazon has come under some scrutiny for poor performance in 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 at just 7% return for last year and ranking as the worst performer of the Magnificent 7 companies. Amazon is scheduled to report earnings on 2/5/2026, following a record holiday season.

Understanding Amazon’s Core Business

Amazon’s business model is simple at its core: make shopping easy and convenient, then use that scale to build highly profitable businesses around it. The company sells products online at low margins to attract millions of customers, while also letting third-party sellers use its platform and logistics network in exchange for fees. Prime subscriptions keep customers coming back by offering fast shipping and bundled digital services. Behind the scenes, the real profit drivers are Amazon Web Services, which sells cloud computing to businesses, and advertising, which monetizes traffic on the site. Amazon consistently reinvests its cash into growth focusing more on long-term dominance than short-term earnings.

Big 3 Things to look out for on the upcoming Amazon Earnings Call

1. Holiday Sales: The big thing investors will be looking for on this report is how Amazon performed on its holiday sales. 2025 was a record year for online retail and will likely translate to record profits for Amazon.

2. Amazon Web Services (AWS) Growth: AWS has been Amazon’s bread and butter in recent years driving most of the profit for Amazon and expanding its moat.

3. Capital Expenditure (Capex) Growth: Amazon, like many other market leaders, is expected to report record Capex in 2026 as the AI race continues. This past week, Amazon announced another $50 billion investment in OpenAI. This investment has struck concern with many investors over Free Cash Flow (FCF) Margins.

Capital Expenditure (Capex): The money a company spends to buy, upgrade, or maintain physical assets. These are long-term investments intended to help the company grow. Examples for Amazon would be building warehouses and purchasing new delivery trucks.

Free Cash Flow (FCF): The cash left over after a company has paid for its day-to-day operating expenses and its Capex. Think of it as the company’s “take-home-pay” or disposable income.

Amazon (AMZN) Key Facts

• CEO: Andy Jassy

• Founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos in Bellevue, Washington

• Market Cap: $2.56 Trillion

• Sector: Consumer Cyclical - Internet Retail

• 52-week range: $161.43-$258.60

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide

• PE Ratio: 33.67

Amazon (AMZN) vs SPDR Shares S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the past 5-years

Weekly Insight: Big 3 Takeaways From Apple Earnings Call

1. How were the sales of the new iPhone?

   Successful - Apple had its best quarter in history with $143.8 billion in total revenue with the iPhone bringing in $85.3b - posting a 23% year over year increase.

2. Development of AI:

   Late but effective - Apple confirmed a multi-year deal with Google to use Gemini to power the next generation of Siri and other cloud-based AI features.

3. China Recovery:

   Apple showed a surprisingly big rebound defying the weak economy narrative around China. Apple’s revenue in China surged with 38% year over year growth. While Huawei has been successful, the Chinese market has show to be big enough for both Apple and Huawei, despite the patriotic domestic buying trend worldwide. Tariffs cost Apple $1.4b in the quarter but will have little effect on overall margins.

Poll Question

Last week’s poll results - “Which company do you think is most likely to come off the Top 10 S&P 500 holdings in 10 years?”

1. 50% Voted - Apple (AAPL)

2. 40% Voted - NVIDIA (NVDA)

3. 10% Voted - Amazon (AMZN)

   Featured YouTube Comment: josephburnett5643

   “The ai bubble is going to hurt Nvidia the most. Everyone else will be able to pivot. They will still be massive but they only joined the 10 in the last couple years due to the ai bubble. If they continue to ignore other lines of business, they won’t have the tooling to pivot quickly.”

   Lucas Nulsen’s Response:

   “Joseph, I’m with you on this one – that’s a great take. When you look at the Mag 7 companies, NVIDIA is the most exposed because they rely so heavily on just semiconductors. They’ve been around the block, they aren’t a new company, and we have seen them go through ups and downs with their graphics cards in the past. It wouldn’t surprise me if the AI space sold off, NVIDIA would take the biggest hit, simply because the other giants have other businesses to lean on.”

   

Quote Of The Week

“If you’re competitor-focused, you have to wait until there is a competitor doing something. Being customer-focused allows you to be more pioneering.”

-Amazon Founder, Jeff Bezos

Feel free send feedback or further input on the poll question to [email protected] or [email protected]. We would love to hear from you!